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房地产限购政策的调控效应分析——基于干预模型的实证研究.docx

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房地产限购政策的调控效应分析——基于干预模型的实证研究 Abstract SincetheintroductionoftherealestatepurchaserestrictionpoliciesinChinain2010,theeffectivenessofthesepoliciesinregulatingtherealestatemarkethasbeenwidelydebated.Thispaper,basedontheinterventionmodelandempiricalresearch,analyzestheregulatoryeffectofrealestatepurchaserestrictionsandprovidessuggestionsforfuturepolicyadjustments.Theresultsindicatethatwhilethepurchaserestrictionpolicieshadashort-termeffectofcoolingthemarket,theydidnotsolvetherootcauseofrisinghousingprices.Therefore,long-termpoliciessuchasincreasingthesupplyofaffordablehousing,improvingthehousingrentalmarket,andenhancingmarkettransparencyarenecessarytoachieveastableandsustainablerealestatemarket. Keywords:realestatepurchaserestriction,regulatoryeffect,interventionmodel,affordablehousing,rentalmarket,markettransparency. I.Introduction Sincethelate1990s,therealestateindustryhasbeenboominginChina,withhousingpricesincreasingatanunprecedentedrate.Thisphenomenonhasbeenattributedtofactorssuchasurbanizationanddemographicchanges,aswellasspeculationandinvestmentbehavior.Asaresult,housingaffordabilityhasbecomeasignificantsocialproblem,andthegovernmenthascraftedpoliciestoregulatethemarket. OneofthemostsignificantpolicyinterventionsintheChineserealestatemarketistherealestatepurchaserestrictionpolicies,introducedin2010.Thesepolicieslimitthenumberofpropertiesanindividualcanbuyincertainareas,andthusaimtocurbspeculationandreducethedemandforhousing.Sincetheirimplementation,thesepolicieshavebeenwidelydebatedintermsoftheireffectivenessandsustainability.Thispaperaimstoanalyzetheregulatoryeffectofthepurchaserestrictionpoliciesandprovidesuggestionsforfuturepolicyimprovements. II.LiteratureReview Scholarshaveconductedextensiveresearchontheeffectivenessofrealestatepurchaserestrictionpolicies.Forexample,WuandDeng(2017)studiedtheimpactofpurchaserestrictionsonresidentialhousingpricesinShanghaiandfoundthatthesepolicieshadashort-termeffectofreducinghousingpricesby1.2%–3.1%.However,theyalsoarguedthatp