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基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾概率评估.docx

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基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾概率评估 Abstract TheprobabilityassessmentofhotelfiresbasedonBayesiannetworksisofgreatsignificanceinensuringthesafetyofpeople'slivesandproperty.ByestablishingaBayesiannetworkmodel,theprobabilityofhotelfirescanbeeffectivelyevaluated,andthecausesandinfluencingfactorsoffirescanbeanalyzedtoprovideguidanceforfirepreventionandcontrolmeasures.ThispaperdiscussesthefeasibilityandadvantagesofusingBayesiannetworkstoassesstheprobabilityofhotelfires,andprovidesadetailedintroductiontotheestablishmentandapplicationofthemodel. Keywords:Bayesiannetwork,hotelfire,probabilityassessment,firepreventionandcontrol 1.Introduction Withthedevelopmentofthehotelindustry,thenumberofhotelshasincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears,andthesafetyofhoteloccupancyhasbecomeanimportantconcernforpeople.Inparticular,theoccurrenceofhotelfiresposesagreatthreattothesafetyandlivesofhotelguests,andhascausedseriouseconomicandsociallosses.Thefactorsleadingtohotelfiresarecomplex,andtheimpactonthehotelishuge.Therefore,itisnecessarytoevaluatetheprobabilityofhotelfiresandtakeeffectivemeasurestopreventandcontrolfires. Traditionalmethodsofevaluatingtheprobabilityoffiresoftenrelyonexperienceorstatistics,buttheprobabilityoffiresisaffectedbymanyfactorsandtherelationshipbetweenthesefactorsiscomplex.Bayesiannetworkisapowerfultoolformodelingcomplexrelationshipsbetweenvariablesandpredictingevents.ByconstructingagraphicalmodelofthedependenciesbetweeneventsusingBayesiannetwork,theprobabilityofeventscanbepredictedthroughinference. ThepurposeofthispaperistoexplorethefeasibilityandadvantagesofusingBayesiannetworkstoevaluatetheprobabilityofhotelfires,andtoproposeamethodbasedonBayesiannetworkforhotelfirepreventionandcontrol. 2.Bayesiannetworks 2.1Definitionandstructure Bayesiannetworkisagraphicalmodelthatdescribesthedependenciesbetweenevents.Itconsistsofasetofnodesrepresentingvariablesandasetofdirectededgesindicatingthedependenciesbetweenvariables.ThenodesoftheBayesiannetworkrepresenteventsorvariables,andthedirectededgesrepresentthe