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基于动态聚类分析和模糊模式识别法的北京城区汛期降雨时空分布规律研究.docx

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基于动态聚类分析和模糊模式识别法的北京城区汛期降雨时空分布规律研究 Abstract Inthisstudy,weuseddynamicclusteringanalysisandfuzzypatternrecognitionmethodtoexplorethespatio-temporaldistributionofrainstormsinBeijingduringthefloodseason.ThedatacamefromtheBeijingMeteorologicalBureaufortheperiodof2010to2019.Atotalof53rainstormeventswereidentifiedandanalyzed.TheresultsshowthattherainstormsinBeijingaremainlyconcentratedinthemonthsofJulyandAugust,withsixpeaksoccurringduringtheperiodfromlateJunetoSeptember.Spatially,therainstormeventspresentanobviouszonaldistribution,withthehighestfrequencyofoccurrenceinthenorthwestandsoutheastofBeijing.Inaddition,thecharacteristicsoftherainstormeventswereanalyzedbasedonthefuzzypatternrecognitionmethod.Fourmaintypesofrainstormswereidentified,includingshort-durationheavyrainfall,medium-durationmoderaterainfall,long-durationlightrainfall,andmultiple-durationscatteredrainfall.Theanalysisofthecharacteristicsofrainstormeventscanprovideabetterunderstandingofthespatio-temporaldistributionofrainstormsinBeijingandprovideimportantreferenceforurbanfloodcontrolanddrainage. Introduction Therainstormisanimportantcomponentofthehydrologicalcycleandhassignificantinfluenceontheregionaleco-environmentandsocial-economicdevelopment.Thespatio-temporaldistributionofrainstormsisanimportantresearchfocusinmeteorology,hydrology,andgeography.Beijing,thecapitalcityofChina,islocatedinthenorthernChinawithasemi-humidclimate.RainstormsinBeijingmainlyoccurinthefloodseason(fromJunetoSeptember),whichhavecausedmanyurbanflooddisastersinrecentyears.Thus,itisnecessarytoconductacomprehensiveanalysisofthespatiotemporaldistributionofrainstormsinBeijingduringthefloodseasoninordertoeffectivelypreventandcontrolurbanflooddisasters. Materialsandmethods ThedatausedinthisstudycamefromtheBeijingMeteorologicalBureau,includingdailyrainfalldatafrom2010to2019.Inordertoidentifytherainstormevents,weusedthecriteriathattherainfallintensitywasgreaterthanorequalto25mm/hforatleast2hours.Thedynamicclusteringanalysiswasappliedtoclassifyth