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基于正态云-投影寻踪模型的火灾风险评估 Abstract Fireriskisanimportantissueinbuildingsafetymanagementandemergencyresponse.Accuratefireriskassessmentcanhelppreventfiresandminimizethelosscausedbyfires.Thispaperproposesafireriskassessmentmodelbasedonthenormalcloud-projectiontracingmodel.Themodeltakesintoaccounttheimpactofvariousfactorsonfirerisk,includingbuildingstructure,firepreventionfacilities,personnelevacuationcapacityandfirebrigaderesponsetime.Byusingthismodel,thefireriskofabuildingcanbequantitativelyevaluatedandtheweaklinksinfirepreventioncanbeidentified,whichprovidesascientificbasisfortheformulationoffiresafetymeasuresandemergencyresponseplans. Keywords:fireriskassessment,normalcloud-projectiontracingmodel,buildingsafetymanagement,emergencyresponse Introduction Withtheincreasingfrequencyofhigh-risebuildingfires,fireriskassessmenthasbecomeanimportantissueinbuildingsafetymanagementandemergencyresponse.Fireriskreferstotheprobabilityofafireoccurringandthedegreeofharmcausedbythefire.Accuratefireriskassessmentcanhelppreventfiresandminimizethelosscausedbyfires.However,fireriskassessmentisacomplextaskthatinvolvesmanyfactors,suchasbuildingstructure,firepreventionfacilities,personnelevacuationcapacity,andfirebrigaderesponsetime.Therefore,itisnecessarytoestablishacomprehensivefireriskassessmentmodelthatcantakeintoaccounttheimpactofvariousfactorsonfirerisk. Inrecentyears,manyfireriskassessmentmodelshavebeenproposed.However,mostofthesemodelshaveshortcomingssuchasinadequateconsiderationoftheinteractionbetweenvariousfactors,lackofdatasupport,andlowaccuracy.Inordertosolvetheseproblems,thispaperproposesafireriskassessmentmodelbasedonthenormalcloud-projectiontracingmodel.Themodeltakesintoaccounttheinteractionbetweenvariousfactorsandusesdata-drivenmethodstoimprovetheaccuracyofthemodel. Methodology Theproposedfireriskassessmentmodelisbasedonthenormalcloud-projectiontracingmodel.Themodelconsistsofthreeparts:inputlayer,hiddenlayer,andoutputlayer.Theinputlayerincludesthefollowingfourfactors: (1)Building