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基于人口预测模型对实行二孩政策的研究.docx

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基于人口预测模型对实行二孩政策的研究 Abstract TheimplementationofChina'stwo-childpolicyhasbeenacontroversialissuesinceitsimplementationin2015.Thispaperaimstoinvestigatethepotentialimpactsofthepolicybyusingapopulationpredictionmodel.Thepopulationpredictionmodelprovidesanapproachtoforecastthepotentialchangesinpopulationsize,basicdemographiccomposition,andagestructure.Inthisstudy,weanalyzethetwo-childpolicy'spotentialimpactsonfertility,mortality,andmigrationratesinChina,usingtheLee-Cartermodel.Basedontheanalysis,ourresultsindicatethatthetwo-childpolicyislikelytoshiftthepopulationstructuretowardsalargernumberofyoungerpeople,asmallerproportionofolderpeople.Furthermore,thetwo-childpolicyisexpectedtoreducetheagingproblemandsupporteconomicdevelopmentinthelongrun. Introduction China'sone-childpolicy,whichhadbeenimplementedsince1979,hasbeenconsideredoneofthemostrestrictivepopulationcontrolpoliciesglobally.Thepolicyaimedtocontrolthepopulationgrowthrateandmaintainsocialstability.Althoughtheone-childpolicyhadbeensomewhateffectiveincurbingpopulationgrowth,ithasledtoalowfertilityrateandanincreasinglyagingpopulation.Therefore,in2015,theChinesegovernmentimplementedanewpopulationcontrolpolicyknownasthetwo-childpolicy.Thepolicyallowscoupletohavetwochildren,hopingthatitwillbalancethedemographicstructure,curbagingandpromoteeconomicgrowth. Sinceimplementation,thetwo-childpolicyhasdrawnconsiderablediscussiononitspotentialimplicationsforChina'spopulationgrowthandbasicdemographiccomposition.Inthisstudy,weemployapopulationpredictionmodeltoanalyzethepotentialdemographicimpactsofthetwo-childpolicy.Populationpredictionmodelshavebeenwidelyusedinpopulationstudiestoforecastfuturepopulationsize,agedistribution,andotherdemographiccharacteristicsbasedonpastandpresentdata.Ouraimistoevaluatethepotentialeffectsofthetwo-childpolicyonChina'spopulationcompositionandmakepredictionsonhowthepopulationstructureislikelytochange. Researchmethodology WeusedtheLee-Cartermodeltoinvestigatethepotentialdemographicimpactsofthetwo-child