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后危机时代一线城市房地产价格泡沫研究——基于GSADF方法 Abstract: Thispaperexaminestheexistenceofahousingpricebubbleinfirst-tiercitiesinChinaduringthepost-crisisera.WeapplythegeneralizedsupremumaugmentedDickey-Fuller(GSADF)methodtoinvestigatethestationarityofthehousingpriceindexfrom2010to2020.Ourresultsindicatethatthereisevidenceofahousingpricebubbleinfirst-tiercitiessince2014,whichreacheditspeakin2016.Ouranalysisalsoshowsthatthebubblebegantodeflatein2017,butstillpersistsinsomecities.Wefurtherdiscussthecausesandeffectsofthehousingpricebubbleinfirst-tiercitiesandprovidepolicyrecommendationstomitigateitsadverseimpacts. Introduction: Sincetheglobalfinancialcrisisin2008,China’srealestatemarkethasexperiencedarapidgrowthperiod,especiallyinfirst-tiercities.Thegovernment’ssupportivepolicies,includinglow-interestloansandtaxincentives,havestimulatedthedemandforhousing,andledtoasignificantincreaseinhousingprices.However,theexcessivesurgeinhousingpriceshasraisedconcernsabouttheexistenceofahousingpricebubbleinChina.Somescholarsarguethatthehighhousingpricesinfirst-tiercitiesaredrivenbystrongdemand,whileotherssuggestthatspeculationandinvestmentaretheprimarycontributors. Inthispaper,wefocusonanalyzingtheexistenceofahousingpricebubbleinfirst-tiercitiesduringthepost-crisisera.Specifically,weusetheGSADFmethodtoinvestigatethestationarityofthehousingpriceindexfrom2010to2020.Ourresearchaimstoprovideempiricalevidenceforpolicymakersandinvestorstomakeinformeddecisions. DataandMethodology: Toexaminetheexistenceofahousingpricebubbleinfirst-tiercities,wecollecthousingpricedatafromJuly2010toJune2020forthefourlargestcitiesinChina,includingBeijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,andShenzhen.ThedataisdownloadedfromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina. WeusetheGSADFmethodtotestthestationarityofthehousingpriceindex.TheGSADFtestisamodifiedversionoftheaugmentedDickey-Fuller(ADF)test,whichcanaccommodatestructuralbreaksinthedataseries.TheGSADFtestperformsbetterthanthetraditionalADFtestasitcanidentifybubblesinthedataseries. Results: Table1pre