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基于非概率凸模型的可靠性分析及应用.docx

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基于非概率凸模型的可靠性分析及应用 Abstract Reliabilityanalysisisanessentialaspectofengineeringdesign,aimingtoevaluatetheprobabilityoffailureofacomponentorsystem.Non-probabilisticconvexmodelshavebecomepopularinreliabilityanalysisduetotheirsimplicityandcomputationalefficiency.Thispaperpresentsanoverviewofthetheoryandapplicationofnon-probabilisticconvexmodelsinreliabilityanalysis.Firstly,thebasicconceptsandprinciplesofnon-probabilisticconvexmodelsareintroduced.Then,theapplicationofthesemodelsindifferentreliabilityanalysisproblems,suchasseriesandparallelsystems,isaddressed.Finally,theadvantagesandlimitationsofnon-probabilisticconvexmodelsarediscussed. Introduction Reliabilityisacriticalfactorinengineeringdesign,especiallyinsafety-criticalapplicationssuchasaerospace,defense,andnuclearpower.Thereliabilityofacomponentorsystemisdefinedastheprobabilityofitssatisfactoryperformanceundergivenconditionsforaspecifiedperiod.Inthepast,probabilisticmodels,suchasthefailureratemodel,havebeenwidelyusedinreliabilityanalysisduetotheirabilitytoquantifyrandomnessandvariabilityofthesystem.However,thesemodelshavelimitationswhendealingwithcomplexsystems,wheretheprobabilitydistributionoffailuremechanismsandloadsisnotwell-defined.Inrecentyears,non-probabilisticconvexmodelshaveemergedasanalternativetoprobabilisticmodelsduetotheirsimplicityandcomputationalefficiency.Thesemodelshavebeensuccessfullyappliedtomanyreliabilityanalysisproblems,suchasseriesandparallelsystems. BasicConceptsofNon-ProbabilisticConvexModels Non-probabilisticconvexmodelsarebasedontheprincipleofintervalanalysis,whichaimstoquantifyuncertaintiesinasystemusingasetofintervalsinsteadofprobabilitydistributions.Anintervalisdefinedasarangeofpossiblevaluesforavariable.Inanon-probabilisticmodel,theintervalsofinputvariablesarepropagatedtotheoutputvariablethroughamathematicalfunctionorasimulationmodel.Theoutputintervalrepresentstherangeofpossiblevaluesfortheoutputvariable. Thebasicideaofnon-probabilisticconvexmodelsistotransformthereliabilityanalysisprob