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季度1996年1997年1998年Ⅰ季度182231330Ⅱ季度172817051932Ⅲ季度114412081427Ⅳ季度118134132年份季度t销售量/件三点滑动平均/件20061118222172810181.697445972331144996.66666671.14782608744118497.66666670.237106497200715231684.66666670.33739045826170510481.6269083973712081015.6666671.1893665948134557.33333330.240430622200819330798.66666670.41318864821019321229.6666671.5711574951.69744597331114271163.6666671.226296191.1478260874121320.2371064970.33739045812341.6269083972006~1.6974459731.1478260870.2371064971.1893665920070.3373904581.6269083971.189366590.2404306220.24043062220080.4131886481.5711574951.571157495~sum0.413188648季节性指标0.3752895531.6318372881.3027833910.238768563.5486787911.571157495矫正季节性指标0.4230189031.8393744651.4684714710.2691351611.22629619年份季度t销售量/件S(1)S(2)atbt2006111821821821820221728645.8321.14970.46757.54331144795.26463.3761127.144774.39644118592.082501.9878682.1762210.2198200715231483.7574496.51868470.99612-29.77632261705850.13018602.602131097.65823577.56545371208957.491126709.06882881205.913423579.652026848134710.4437882709.4813166711.40625982.24576702200819330596.3106517675.5301172517.0911863-184.84541932101932997.0174562771.97631891222.058594525.095987131114271126.012219878.1870891373.83735578.2586374412132827.8085535863.0735284792.5435787-82.28494127α=0.72009113300.45282992141155.078781315801.3283684416124.71826