玉米总产量预报模型.doc

本科毕业论文

题目：日照玉米总产量预报模型
院（部）：理学院
专业：信息与计算科学
班级：信计054
姓名：朱庆亮
学号：2005121355
指导教师：夏省祥
完成日期：2009年6月15日

山东建筑大学毕业论文
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目录

TOC\o"1-3"\h\z\u摘要·································································Ⅱ
ABSTRACT····························································Ⅲ
1前言
1.1研究的目的和意义·····················································1
1.2国内外研究现状·······················································2
1.3研究内容·····························································3
2资料来源及处理方法
2.1资料来源·····························································4
2.2处理方法····························································4
3玉米产量预测的灰色模型
3.1GM(1,1)模型的建模原理·············································7
3.2GM(1,1)模型的建模过程及求解·······································7
3.3结果与分析···························································8
4玉米产量回归分析预报模型
4.1日照地区状况及玉米生理特征··········································11
4.2模型假设及符号说明··················································12
4.3玉米产量回归分析预报模型············································13
4.4日照玉米产量分析及预报··············································13
4.5日照玉米单产的滑动平均预报方法······································14
4.6玉米产量的预测······················································21
5结论·································································24
谢辞··································································25
参考文献······························································26山东建筑大学毕业论文

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摘要
本文采用山东省气象局、山东省日照市气象局，山东省日照市农业局等不同地区（其中在三个试验点）进行的实验数据，其中包括1971—2008年的玉米产量，种植面积资料以及同期的气象资料等。通过滑动平均法对单产量进行处理，利用灰色模型对单产量进行简单的处理预测，分离趋势产量与气象产量，用多项式法对趋势产量进行模拟和分析。同时利用SPSS软件的相关性分析，回归分析等功能对数据进行处理，找出相关性因子，并得到回归方程，进而模拟气象产量，得到玉米产量与气象因子之间的关系，最后预测实际的玉米产量。
分析结果表明：日照市的玉米气象产量主要同播种期，成熟期等重要时期的相对湿度，日照，降水量和其他一些气象因子有关。在分析模拟的基础上，建立日照单产量模拟预测的计算机模型，初步开发了日照玉米产量的预报系统。

关键词:玉米；回归分析；气象产量；趋势产量；灰色模型

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