流域生态风险评估方法研究.pdf

中国环境科学2012，32(9)：1693-1701ChinaEnvironmentalScience

流域生态风险评估方法研究以太湖流域为例

许妍，马明辉，高俊峰(1．国家海洋环境监测中心，辽宁大连116023；2．中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究
所，江苏南京210008)

摘要：在分析流域生态风险发生机理的基础上，根据风险评估框架，从风险评估三要素风险源生境一受体出发，构建了危险度脆弱度一损失
度流域生态风险评估技术体系，主要包括综合模型的构建、指标体系选取、等级体系划分与评估单元确定等内容，并以太湖流域为例进行

实证分析，结果表明：太湖流域生态风险整体以中等风险为主，呈升高趋势，与2000年相比，2008年高、较高生态风险所占面积比分别增加

了0．39％和5％．实证分析基本验证了模型及方法的科学性和可操作性．

关键词：生态风险；评估方法：太湖流域

中图分类号：X171文献标识码：A文章编号：1000—6923(2012)091693—09

Theevaluationmethodofecologicalriskassessmentbasedonwatershedscal争——ketheTaihuwatershedas
example．XUYan，MAMing-hui，GAOJun—feng2(1．NationalMarineEnvironmentMonitoringCenter,Dalian116023，
China；2．NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnology,ChineseAcademyofSciences，Nanjing210008，China)．China
EnvironmentalScience，2012，32(9)：1693～1701
Abstract：Referencetothepreviousresearchresultsaboutecologicalriskassessment，thepaperfirstlyconsideredthe

interactionmechanismandtherelationshipamongeachecosystemfromthewatershedecosystemperspective，andthen

studiedthecontentandfeaturesofecologicalriskassessmentabouttypicalwatershed．Secondly,accordingtothebasic
elements(riskSOLlrces，habimtandefect)afectedontheecologicalriskassessment，baseonanoverallconsiderationof
manyrisksources，riskfactors，multi-endpointandecologicalreceptorscoexistence，wehadconstructedantechnology

systemwhichincludesthehazardindicatorsofrisksources，thevulnerabilityindicatorsofhabitatsaswellasthepotential
lossofriskreceptors．Themainpartsofsystemincludedcomprehensivemodelbuilding，indexsystemselection，level

divisionandassessmentunitdetermination．Finally,usingtheArcGIStechnologyandassessmentmodel，weevaluatedthe

time-spatialevolutioncharacterofTaihuLakewatershedanddeterminedthestatusand~endsofecologicalrisk

developmentbasedontheassessmentresults．TheresultsindicatedthatmostecologicalriskofTaihuwatershedwere

mediumlevelandincreasedgradually．Ascomparedwith2000year,thepercentageofhighandhigherriskregionhad
increasedby0．39％and5％separatelyin2008years．Theempiricalanalysisverifiedthescientificandfeasibi