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338Vol.33,No.8 20138SystemsEngineering—Theory&PracticeAug.,2013 :1000-6788(2013)08-1905-11:N945;X196:A 1,21,21,2 ,, (1.,100081;2.,100081) 29(integratedassessmentmodels, IAM),,,,, . ,., ,, Æ .,,; Æ ,., ., Æ ,., . ;;;; Progressofintegratedassessmentmodelsforclimatepolicy WEIYi-ming1,2,MIZhi-fu1,2,ZHANGHao1,2 (1.CenterforEnergyandEnvironmentalPolicyResearch,BeijingInstituteofTechnology,Beijing100081,China; 2.SchoolofManagementandEconomics,BeijingInstituteofTechnology,Beijing100081,China) AbstractBasedon29existingclimatechangeintegratedassessmentmodels(IAM),thispaperdiscusses theprogressofintegratedassessmentmodelsforclimatepolicywithfivekeyaspectsinIAMsincluding modelstructure,uncertainty,equity,technicalchangeandabatementmechanism.Therearethreemain categoriesinIAMsincludingoptimizationmodels,computablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)modelsand simulationmodels.Inordertomodeltheuncertaintiesinclimatechange,IAMsinthefutureneedto answerquestionssuchastheprobabilitydistributionoftheeffectsofclimatechange,thedegreetowhich humansocietyisriskaverseandtherateatwhichhumansocietydiscountsfuturebenefitsandcostsrelative tothoseinthepresent.Asfortheintergenerationalequity,prescriptionistsupportsthelowdiscountrate andimmediateactionsinclimatepolicies,whiledescriptionistsupportsthehighdiscountrateand“step- by-step”actionsinclimatepolicies.Asfortheinternationalequity,IAMsshouldplacegreaterwelfare weightsonthelow-incomeregions.IAMshav