人民币汇率变动对中国出口的非对称影响研究.pdf

¢£¥¤¥¦¥§¥¨¥©¥
¥¥

34¡9Vol.34,No.9


2014
9SystemsEngineering|Theory&PracticeSept.,2014




:1000-6788(2014)09-2212-08:F752.7:A

!"#$&%(')+*-,./$/01/2/34
57678

,9;:=<
HI

(>?A@CBEDFCBG,510275)

JKMLONQPSR

USVTUSWOXSYOZQ[\S]S^S_S`SabScSdSeOfQgShOi

2001T1200812HS,

jQkSlSm

€SS‚SƒS„O…rOsStSuQvSyOYOZ

^SnOoSpSqQrOsStSuQvOwQxSyOYOZQzS{S[S|QyS}S~S.,

“QŒSOzS{Q”S•O–rOsStQ—

zS{S[Q~SS†O‡QˆS‰SŠOYOZ‹WOXSpQŒSOzS{S[QŽSO[SwQO‘’wQO[.,

˜

SžSŠSœOfQ~SO‡QˆSWOXS[QŒSOzS{SYOZ‹SŸS—SS¡S¢S£¤S¥OwQ¦S†

yS™OšSYOZ‹›SœO[Q~S;,

LONQ©
˜S³

§O¨

‚SªOpSqO«‹¬SWOXSYOZQ[Q‚S­S®S¯S°SŒSOzS{S[QŽS
±S²OoQrOsStQ—z

[Q~S.,
¹QºS›S»S¼S½OšQ¾O¿SÀQÁO[QÂS¶S·S¸

{SYOZ‹´SŒO[QµS¶S·S¸,.

ÃSÄSÅ

jQkSlSm

YOZ‹‚S­|QyS}SÆS~SdSeOfQg
rOsStSuQv;;;

TheasymmetricimpactsofRMBexchangerateonChina's
exports

CHENLang-nan,SUHai-feng

(LingnanCollege,SunYat-senUniversity,Guangzhou510275,China)
AbstractThispaperutilizestheheterogeneouscommonfactormodelstoinvestigatetheasymmetric
impactsofRMBexchangerateontheexportsbasedontheexportdataclassifiedbyHS2digitsfrom
January2001toDecember2008.TheresultsshowthattheimpactsofRMBexchangerateonChinese
exportsvarywiththeexportsofprocessingcommodities.TheappreciationofRMBwillhaveanegative
effectontheexportswithsmallproportionofprocessingcommodities.However,thisnegativeimpacts
willdecreasewhentheproportionofexportonprocessingcommoditiesincreases.Thispaperalsoexplains
whytheRMB'sappreciationhasapositiveimpactonChineseexportandalargenumberoffirmsfindit
hardtooperate.
KeywordsRMBexchangerate;exportstructure;asymmetricimpacts;heterogeneouspenalfactormodel

1ÇÉÈ

ÊÊSØSÙSÚSÛSÜSÝ

ÍSÎSÏSËSÐSÑSÒSÓSÔSÕSÖS×ÏSÞSßSàáQâSãSäæå‹çSèSéSêSëSìSíSîSï

20ËSÌ80,,

ð

ϒñ’ò
¡’Ï’Ò’Ó’Ô’Õ¢’ï’ö¡£¡¤¦¥¨§¡©’Ó
¡¡©’Ó’Ï¡¡
¡¡¡’Ë’Ð

,ó’ô’õ’ö’÷’øùåûú’ü’â’ý’þ’ÿ,,

SÏOáSëSø¢¤¥§©SÓ¢SïSõOáQâ¤SÏSêS÷!Së"S¦¢

ÒSÓ,\".,

#SéSõOáQâSÏ$%&'
Í(OáQâ")SËSÐ*+SëSøáQâSÏ,-Í./0