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伯南克讲话原稿.pdf

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Forreleaseondelivery 3:45p.m.EDT June7,2011 TheU.S.EconomicOutlook Remarksby BenS.Bernanke Chairman BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem atthe InternationalMonetaryConference Atlanta,Georgia June7,2011 Iwouldliketothanktheorganizersforinvitingmetoparticipateonceagainin theInternationalMonetaryConference.Iwillbeginwithabriefupdateontheoutlook fortheU.S.economy,thendiscussrecentdevelopmentsinglobalcommoditymarkets thataresignificantlyaffectingboththeU.S.andworldeconomies,andconcludewith somethoughtsontheprospectsformonetarypolicy. TheOutlookforGrowth U.S.economicgrowthsofarthisyearlookstohavebeensomewhatslowerthan expected.Aggregateoutputincreasedatonly1.8percentatanannualrateinthefirst quarter,andsupplychaindisruptionsassociatedwiththeearthquakeandtsunamiinJapan arehamperingeconomicactivitythisquarter.Anumberofindicatorsalsosuggestsome lossofmomentuminthelabormarketinrecentweeks.Weare,ofcourse,monitoring thesedevelopments.Thatsaid,withtheeffectsoftheJapanesedisasteronmanufacturing outputlikelytodissipateincomingmonths,andwithsomemoderationingasolineprices inprospect,growthseemslikelytopickupsomewhatinthesecondhalfoftheyear. Overall,theeconomicrecoveryappearstobecontinuingatamoderatepace,albeitata ratethatisbothunevenacrosssectorsandfrustratinglyslowfromtheperspectiveof millionsofunemployedandunderemployedworkers. Asisoftenthecase,theabilityandwillingnessofhouseholdstospendwillbean importantdeterminantofthepaceatwhichtheeconomyexpandsincomingquarters.A rangeofpositiveandnegativeforcesiscurrentlyinfluencingbothhouseholdfinancesand attitudes.Onthepositiveside,householdincomeshavebeenboostedbythenet improvementinjobmarketconditionssinceearlierthisyearaswellasfromthereduction inpayrolltaxesthattheCongresspassedinDecember.Increasesinhouseholdwealth-- -2- largelyreflectinggainsinequityvalues--andlowerdebtburdenshavealsoincreased consumers’willingnesstospend.Onthenegativeside,householdsarefacingsome significanthead