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欧盟扩张的危险与挑战(RisksandChallengesof.docx

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欧盟扩张的危险与挑战(RisksandChallengesof欧盟扩张的危险与挑战(RisksandChallengesoftheEUexpansion)/周大勇RisksandchallengesoftheEUexpansion周大勇(Zhou,Dayong)I.IntroductionForseveralyearsnowtheEuropeanUnionisdiscussingapossibleenlargement,becauseseveralEuropeancountrieshaveappliedformembershipintheEU.TheseareespeciallytheformersocialistcountriesinEasternEurope,thathaveclearlyturnedtowardsthewestsincethecollapseoftheironcurtain.ThesecountriesareBulgaria,theBalticcountriesLatvia,LithuaniaandEstonia,Poland,Romania,theSlovakRepublic,theCzechRepublic,SloveniaandHungary.InadditionTurkey,CyprusandMaltaaretryingforquitesometimealreadytojointheEU.TheseapplicationarenottobeacceptedwithoutanyfurtherdeliberationbecausetheydobringalongsomerisksandtheconsequencesarehardtodistinguishthereforethesecountriesarenotveryexpectedjoiningtheEuropeanUnioninthenearfutureandwillthereforenotbeincludedinthefollowingevaluation.II.RisksandchallengesIfwewantstoevaluatetherisksandchallengesofanupcomingenlargementoftheEU,weshouldfirsttakeintoaccountexperiencesgainedduringpreviousexpansionwhichweretosomeextentcomparable.Herethesouthernexpansionfrom1986shouldbementionedwheretwoeconomicallypatheticcountriessoughtadmissiontothethenEuropeanCommunity.Theadmissionprocedureofthesetwocandidates,beingSpainandPortugal,werelengthyandconsideredveryproblembearing.Especiallytheamountofproducethatwouldaddtothealreadyexistingagriculturalover-productionoftheCommunitywasseentobeaproblemsinceitwouldincreasetheloadontheEuropeanbudget.ButseenfromaglobaleconomicalperspectivethejoiningofSpainandPortugalwasoverallpositivefortheECandthetwocountries,althoughSpainstruggledwithafurtherriseofunemploymentanddisparitieswithintheCommunitywerefurtheramplified.ThedisparitieswithintheUnionwillmostcertainlyincreasewhenitcomestoaneasternexpansion,buttheagriculturalproblemwillnotbeanissue,becausethecandidateshavenotgottheirfocusonagriculture,alreadybecauseoftheircommunistheritagewhichfocusedonindustryratherthanonagricultureorthetertiarysector.Incaseoftheapproachi