影响粮食产量的相关因素分析.docx

影响粮食产量的相关因素分析我国土地资源稀缺，人口多而粮食需求量大，因此粮食产量的稳定增长，直接影响着人民生活和社会的稳定与发展。下面是小编帮大家整理的影响粮食产量的相关因素分析，仅供参考，欢迎大家阅读。为了研究中国影响粮食产量的各种因素，通过经济理论分析得出粮产量与以下四个因素有关，现建模如下：y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+UX1:农业机械总动力（万千瓦）X2：有效灌溉面积（千公顷）X3：化肥施用量（万吨）X4：农业从业人员（万人）Y:粮食总产量（万吨）数据资料如下：地区X1X2X3X4Y北京399.2328.217.969.7144.2天津593.4353.216.679.7124.1河北7000.44482.3270.61665.52551.1山西1701.3110587658.3853.4内蒙古1350.32371.774.8524.31241.9辽宁1339.81440.7109.8651.21140.0吉林1015.41315.1112.1516.81638.0黑龙江1613.82032121.6744.12545.5上海142.5285.919.384.6174.0江苏2925.33900.9335.51480.23106.6浙江1990.11403.289.71014.91217.7安徽2975.93197.2253.22001.82472.1福建873.3940.2123.3768.7854.7江西902.31903.4106.9983.41614.6山东7025.24824.9423.22462.63837.7河南5780.64725.3419.53558.64101.5湖北1414.02072.5247.11159.12218.5湖南2209.72677.5182.22071.42767.9广东1763.91478.5176.21570.11760.1广西1467.91501.6157.81556.81528.5海南200.9179.826.3177.2199.6重庆586.5624.672921.51106.9四川1679.72469212.62631.13372.0贵州618.6653.471.31372.11161.3云南1301.31403.4112.11674.31467.8西藏114.51572.590.196.2陕西1042.91308131.21002.21089.1甘肃1056.9981.564.5697.5713.5青海256.2211.47.2142.382.7宁夏380.6398.823.6153.1252.7新疆851.23094.379.2314.5783.7第一,进行OLS检验DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/16/04Time:14:53Sample:131Includedobservations:31VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X1-0.1362880.087494-1.5576810.1314X20.3015940.1348122.2371360.0341X35.5783721.9193772.9063450.0074X40.3595310.1519242.3665260.0257C79.59973119.36160.6668790.5107R-squared0.902706Meandependentvar1490.890AdjustedR-squared0.887738S.D.dependentvar1141.343S.E.ofregression382.4131Akaikeinfocriterion14.87757Sumsquaredresid3802234.Schwarzcriterion15.10886Loglikelihood-225.6023F-statistic60.30791Durbin-Watsonstat1.447710Prob(F-statistic)0.000000从估计结果可以看出，模型拟合较好，可决系数R2=0.9027,表明模型在整体上拟合非常好。系数显著性检验：对于β，T统计量为负，说明β1未通过检验，即农业机械总动力对粮产量的影响不显著，初步决定删除X1。第二，从影响粮产量的因素来看，所选的四个解释变量与粮产量都有密切关系，因此它们之间可能具有较强的共线性，现进行多重共线性检验：（1）根据简单相关系数公式，该模型中四个解释变量得相关系数矩阵如图所示：X1X2X3X4X110.8820383578510.8633335592230.714970041093X20.88203835785110.9017697