PDF-温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展.pdf

中国农业科学2008,41(6):1700-1707
ScientiaAgriculturaSinicadoi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2008.06.017
温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展

林而达2,1，刘颖杰1,2

（1首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院，北京100037；2中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/

农业部农业环境与气候变化重点实验室，北京100081）

摘要：IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）在第25次会议上决定，本身不再开发情景，而由专业的研究团队
承担起未来第五次评估报告（AR5）所需要的开发情景任务，同时建议新情景用典型浓度路径RCPs来表示，以加
速综合情景的开发进程，使气候模型同时能模拟排放情景。本文对此进行了介绍，并建议发展中国家和经济转轨
国家更多的参与到新情景和新模型的开发中来，以推进农业气候变化影响评估、支持温室气体排放总量和排放权
分配谈判的科学研究。
关键词：新情景；RCPs；气候变化影响

AdvanceinNewScenariosofGreenhouseGasEmission
andClimateChange

LINEr-da2,1,LIUYing-jie1,2

(1CollegeofResourceEnvironmentandTourism,CapitalNormalUniversity,Beijing100037;2InstituteofEnvironmentand
SustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences/KeyLaboratoryofAgro-Environmentand
ClimateChange,MinistryofAgriculture,Beijing100081)

Abstract:Inpartbecauseofthegrowingnumberofscenariosdevelopedwithintheprofessionalresearchcommunity,theIPCC
decidedduringits25thsession(April2006)thattheresearchcommunitywouldundertakedevelopmentofscenariosforassessment
inapossibleAR5,whiletheIPCC’srolewouldbelimitedtocatalyzingandassessingsuchwork.AndtheIPCCdecisionindicates
thatRCPs(RepresentativeConcentrationPathways)asstabilizationpathwaysinordertoemphasizethatwhiletheyarebasedon
existingscenariosintheliteraturethathaveunderlyingsocio-economicassumptionsandemissionsoutcomes,theyarebeingselected
onthebasisoftheiremissionspathwaysandassociatedconcentrationsofradiativelyactivegasesandaerosols,andtheirprimary
purposeistoprovidetheseconcentrationpathwaystotheclimatemodelingcommunitytoproducenewclimatechangeprojections.
TheRCPsshouldbe“compatiblewith”thefullrangeofemissionsscenariosinthepeerreviewedliterature.Inordertotakeinto
accounttheeffectsofemissionsofallgreenhousegasesandaerosols,theRCPshavebeenselectedbasedprimarilyontheir
emissionsandassociatedconcentrationoutcomes,measuredasthenetradiativeforcingofgreenhousegasesandaerosols.Thepaper
suggestDC/EITtoactivelyattendthedevelopmentofnewmodelsandscenariosinordertoadvancescienti